🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still